The Post Post-PC Era: Will Apple, Google, Samsung, Amazon Or Microsoft Win?

Editor?s note: Peter Relan is a?former developer and Oracle?s former VP of Internet Division, a serial entrepreneur since 1998, and a Silicon Valley angel investor. Relan founded YouWeb Incubator in 2007, spinning out a string of successful mobile and gaming companies. Follow him on Twitter @prelan. Even before Apple?s 10 percent stock dip, it was clear that one battle was already over. Put down your arms –?Android has won the smartphone OS marketshare war. The competitive drama of the smartphone battle has already unfolded to a large extent and is well understood: Android dominates unit shipment volumes,?while iPhone dominates profits associated with smartphones. It may seem like too early a claim, but history tells us Google?s Android distribution model puts the large part of the smartphone market in its corner. No other OS has seen a reversal of fortune this late in the game (think Windows in the early ’90s and Nokia with feature phones in the early aughts). And yet, many unknowns remain in the larger post-PC-era war, which?has only just begun?and has already?seen an explosion of devices and form factors, all competing to fill the void of the now-ancient desktop computer: tablets, smartphones, minis, phablets, ultrabooks, hybrid laptops.?As the market evolves, these devices will be competing to fulfill niche needs, with certain devices bound to flourish and others bound to fail.?A number of factors will influence which device types will survive through 2015: Consumer and worker choice Device distribution channels Platform ecosystems Technology advances Economic development in BRIC 1. Consumer And Worker Choice So what happens to PCs and laptops? The obvious answer is that the tablet will take over, but there are multiple form factors. Current designations include the large tablet, the mini tablet, and the hybrid tablet (think the Microsoft Surface — a tablet with a removable keyboard and OS designed for both leisure and productivity). Consumers will be sticking to their large and small tablets for email, Facebook and watching movies; let?s call them leisure activities requiring a light and easy-to-use second screen. These home consumers don?t need a physical keyboard nor do they want it, and at a $250-$600 price point, tablets are hard to beat. Hence the success of the iPad. And the iPad mini with a Retina display could even be the ?next big thing.? The Nexus 7 is already in the 7.X-inch form factor, so the mini tablet wars are just

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